ABSTRACT
Background. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has imposed unprecedented stressors on South Africa (SA)'s healthcare system. Superimposed on the country's quadruple burden of disease, pandemic-related care further exposes existing inequities. Some of these inequities are specific to hospital-based inpatient services, such as the geographical maldistribution of hospital beds, lack of oxygen supplies and assisted ventilation, and scarcity of trained healthcare workers. Certain high-risk groups, such as individuals with cardiometabolic comorbidity, are likely to develop severe COVID-19 disease requiring hospitalisation with potential for a prolonged length of stay (LoS). It may be helpful for health authorities to identify those at risk for prolonged LoS to facilitate appropriate health systems planning. Objectives. To identify hospital admission laboratory parameters associated with a hospital stay >14 days in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods. A retrospective observational study design was used. Laboratory data were obtained from an SA private laboratory for 642 inpatients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia, comprising 7 months of admission laboratory data from six private hospitals in Johannesburg, Gauteng Province. Results. Of 642 hospital admissions for pneumonia, 497 were confirmed to have COVID-19 infection (reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction test positive). In the COVID-19-positive group, hospital LoS was prolonged in 35.4% of admissions. Univariate analysis demonstrated an association with the following risk factors for prolonged LoS: older age;male sex;high serum creatinine, sodium (Na), chloride, potassium and urea levels and low estimated glomerular filtration rate;raised white blood cell count, lymphopenia, neutrophilia and an elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR);and elevated levels of D-dimers, interleukin-6 (IL-6), and procalcitonin (PCT). The strongest univariate associations (relative risk (RR) ≥2.0) with a hospital stay >14 days were high Na levels, NRL >18, high PCT levels and IL-6 >40 pg/mL. On multivariable analysis, the following factors remained significantly associated with prolonged LoS: older age (RR 1.015 per year of age;95% confidence interval (CI) 1.005 - 1.024);hypernatraemia (RR 1.80;95% CI 1.25 - 2.60);hyperkalaemia (RR 1.61;95% CI 1.18 - 2.20);and neutrophilia (RR 1.47;95% CI 1.15 - 1.88). Conclusions. COVID-19 pandemic preparedness requires hospital-based inpatient care to be prioritised in resource-limited settings, and availability of beds and prompt admissions are essential to ensure good clinical outcomes. In this study of COVID-19 patients admitted with pneumonia, multivariable analysis showed older age, hypernatraemia, hyperkalaemia and neutrophilia to be associated with LoS >14 days. This may assist with healthcare systems planning. © 2022 South African Medical Association. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: On 26 March 2020, the South African (SA) government initiated a 21-day national level 5 lockdown which was subsequently eased off and downgraded to level 4 on 1 May and to level 3 on 1 June. The effect of lockdown measures on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity is currently uncertain. In this article, we analyse the effects of the lockdown measures on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in one of the epicentres in SA. OBJECTIVES: To measure the effects of lockdown measures introduced in SA on SARS-CoV-2 attack rates (ARs, the percentage of individuals who tested positive in a specified time period) in Gauteng Province during a 4-month period (March - June 2020). METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive database from an independent pathology laboratory in Gauteng. We analysed trends of positivity rates of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction tests done during the 4-month period. The ARs are reported over time (unweighted and age-weighted 14-day moving averages) by age groups, gender, and different regions/districts in Gauteng. RESULTS: A total of 162 528 tests were performed at a private laboratory between 5 March and 30 June 2020, of which 20 574 were positive (overall AR 12.7%). These positive tests constituted 44.8% of all positive cases in the province (20 574/45 944). Sixty-two percent of all tests were done in June during lockdown level 3. There was an exponential increase in the AR in June (18.3%) when lockdown was eased to level 3, in comparison with 4.2% (March), 2.2% (April) and 3.3% (May). The increase in June was seen in all the age groups, although it was more pronounced in the 21 - 60 years age groups than the younger (0 - 20 years) and older (>60 years) age groups. The AR was significantly higher in males (13.2%) compared with females (12.1%) (χ2 test, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study testify to the rapid increase in ARs resulting from easing of the lockdown regulations, especially to level 3 in June. Of concern is the upward trend in the AR across all age groups, especially <20 years (15.9%), which was not reported in other parts of the world. Population age dynamics should therefore be considered when taking future decisions about lockdown regulations.